Thursday, October 27, 2011

Why the Euro Crisis won't be Solved


Putting aside issue of Nation Sovereignty there are a number of very good reasons why the present Euro crisis cannot be solved by the EU
The first is Economic, as I have aid in the past you simply cannot shackle together divergent economies under the same fiscal rules and constraints and not expect this to cause destructive pressures. One interest rate for a continent as economically diverse as Europe was simply never going to work. I think most intelligent people, whether they be Euro-phile or Euro-skeptic now accept this. To resolve this issue you MUST have a proper fiscal and political union with a European equivalent of the Federal Reserve able to impose fiscal discipline on members.
Personally I think there is a lack of political will to take this necessary step and that being the case the alternative is for the Euro to fail and that is a nighmare scenario. A possibility is a new core Euro bloc with the Northern European countries as members and the peripheral countries thrown to the wolves. Someone on Newsnight last night mentioned that your Greek Euro account could be converted overnight to a much devalued New Drachma. What would your response be to that? Well I am taking my Euros out of my Irish bank accounts.
The second is that whilst The EU presents itself as a single international entity, it is not. It is a loose federation of nation states all of whom are acting in what they conder to be their own national interest. Alastair darling made a very good point about the UK bank bailouts, whether you agree with the action or not, he could simply act. He did not need to secure the unanimous agreement of many disparate states first. If we apply an analogy withe US, were a state to go bust and California has come close a few time, the FED can simply act to bail it out. It does not need to get the agreemnt of the other states before doing this. the USA is a properly constituted federation and the EU is not and that is why even if the Euro crisis WERE solvable, and I don't believe it is, there is no political mechanism in place that would allow effective action to be taken anyway.
The phrase "A Rock and A Hard Place" could have been coined with this fucking mess in mind and the most annoying thing is that it is a crisis entirely manufactured by the EU itself/ It took a great big monetary shotgun, put it under its chin, and pulled the trigger and we now cannot even agree how we get the brains off the ceiling.
But what the fuck do I know, I confidently predicted the Pet Shop Boys would be a one hit wonder.

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