The Miracle in Belfast? Really?

Quite a lot of newspapers are today covering and event that few people ever thought they would see. Sinn Féin and Ian Paisley sharing a platform, laughing convivially like old mates, and about to enter into a power sharing administration in Northern Ireland. Whilst this is an event to celebrate as it is a tangible manifestation of the recent peace process we should not get too carried away with the supposed magnanimity of either side. Politics has truly come of age in Ulster and this event demonstrates that better than any event in the past 70 odd years.

So why did they do it? Why did they bury the hatchet (well cover it with dry leaves anyway)? The answer is simple. The greatest desire of any and all politicians is to exercise power. That is why they become politicians in the first place. From the lowliest parent who wants to be a school governor to councillors and MPs. What is the point of holding a popular mandate if you cannot exercise the power that this mandate bestows upon you?

Looking at the possible motives of either side.

Ian Paisley, now 80 years of age, has an eye on his legacy and how he will be viewed by history. A man whose nickname was “The Abominable No Man” would not have been viewed favourable by the history book writers had this legacy been based on his antics over the past 40 years. Ian Paisley’s motives are twofold; he wants to leave behind a positive legacy when he finally leaves this mortal coil and he has come to the same realisation as David Trimble did. Namely that the demographic shifts currently happening in Ulster will lead to an effective Catholic, and ergo Republican majority with 20 years. Holding out longer was simply not an option as he requires a seat at the table to ensure that the needs of his broad constituency are served. Realistically he has nowhere else to go

But what of Sinn Féin? Well they are very canny political operators and Adams and McGuiness wield absolute power within that organisation. They are mindful of the demographic shifts also and if there is one thing that Sinn Féin are famous for it is playing the long game. They too want to exercise power, not the brute force power they wielded in the past where a word from either of them and you would lose your kneecaps or worse, but proper respectable political power. One thing is for certain this development demonstrates, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that political violence can buy you a place at the negotiating table. Does anyone have any doubts at all that this agreement would have ever happened had the IRA not turned to an armed struggle in the late 1960’s?

So who will eventually prevail? Well I personally have no doubt that you will see a consensual United Ireland within the next 20 – 25 years. The Unionist people will happily agree to this union because they will see that it is in their best economic interest and political advantage to do so. Sinn Féin’s task in the intervening period is to lay to rest the ghosts of past acts and build a genuine trust between the communities in Northern Ireland and they will do this, not out of any sense of altruism, but because they must if they are to achieve the long stated aims of their organisation. That, more than any other reason, is why the current process will work. The dynamics are now in place for true and lasting peace and for that I am very grateful but let’s not get carried away with talks of “Miracles”. It’s politics pure and simple and thank God for that.